Archalis Radar

Rating performance

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A rating is only worth what it predicts. Every week we measure how often tokens at each grade later ended in a rug pull, and compare it with the band that grade promises. We publish the results as they are, including when a grade misses its band.

Summary

Observed rug pulls by grade

For tokens under 30 days old, each grade promises a band of rug-pull probability. Dot: observed rate. Line: 95% confidence interval (wide when there are few pools). Shaded: the promised band.

GradePoolsRug pullsObservedAgainst the promised bandResult
promised band95% confidence intervalobserved rate

Default rates by rating at launch

Rating at first analysisPoolsRug pullsDefault rate95% interval

Definitions and sample

    Method history

    Every change to the method is listed here, including the ones made after finding our own mistakes. Full method: methodology.

      Data for this report: download JSON. Ratings are automated assessments of structural risk from public blockchain data, not investment advice.